بمشيئة الله متابعة خاصة للإعصار نيلوفار( Nilofar ) في بحر العرب اكتوبر2014 م

[تركي الوايلي]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة سلطان الغيم

تصرف رياح القص خلال 24 ساعة الماضية
رياح القص ما زالت حول مركز الإعصار ثابتة ما بين 10-5 عقد
وهذا يعطي فرصة لزيادة قوة الحالة
ولكن هناك أمر مهم طرء على رياح القص
نحن كنا قد ذكرنا من قبل أن قيم رياح القص في الإتجاه الشمالي الشرقي عالية
ولكن في آخر التحديثات يتضح بدآية هبوط ملحوظ لقيم رياح القص
وهذا قد ينبىء بإقتراب تغير إتجاه الحالة للشمال الشرقي


نترقب وبشوق
والله أعلم

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar Eyes India


As of Monday near midday, EDT, Tropical Cyclone Nilofar is centered about 435 miles southeast of Masirah Island, Oman, and 750 miles west-southwest of Mumbai, India. Nilofar is tracking slowly towards the west-northwest at only about 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph.

The environment surrounding Nilofar is marked by low vertical wind shear and a favorably warm sea surface. As a result, further strengthening is expected for at least the next 24-48 hours with some increase speed towards the northwest and the north.

The worst of Nilofar will skirt eastern Oman at midweek, giving high surf along the coast before veering towards the northeast at increasing speed.

Latest satellite imagery shows an improvement in the convective banding around the systems center. Slow strengthening is expected over the next 24-48 hours due to weak wind shear over the area. Nilofar is forecast to continue moving north-northwestward and although it is expected to pass just east of Oman, rough surf and even some rain may fall across the southeastern part of the country.

Odds of a late-week landfall in the far west of India, in Kutch or the Kathiawar Peninsula, seem to be increasing. Landfall of a tropical cyclone would bring the threat of damaging winds and excessive rainfall.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist John Schneider

Posted: 27-OCT-2014 3:24pm EDT